"Bayes Rules" Article in The Economist
may help to explain how the mind works. Click here for the full article.
|Events & Papers
Neil presented "Using Risk Maps to Visually Model &
Communicate Risk" at the Institute of Risk Management Forum. Download here.
presented "An Introduction to Bayesian Networks" to DSTL (a branch of
the UK Ministry of Defence) Network Skills Group.
Norman Fenton presented "Improved Software Defect Prediction" at the
British Computer Society, Software Process Improvement Network. Download here.
Martin Neil will
present "Modeling Dependable Systems using Hybrid Bayesian Networks",
The First International Conference on Availability, Reliability and
Security (AReS), Vienna University of Technology, April 20 - 22 2006.
This work is an output of a collaborative project, eXdecide, between Agena and Queen Mary, University of London. Download here.
Neil invited to present at the NATO Advanced Research Workshop
"Workshop on Computational Models of Risks to Infrastructure",
Primosten, Croatia, May 9 -13, 2006.
You can download a free evaluation of
which contains the complete functionality, here.
to the first edition of the Agena newsletter. We hope you find it
informative and useful. We welcome any feedback; contact us at email@example.com.
Visualising Your Risks
by Norman Fenton and Martin Neil
you ever had to do a project risk assessment and not known where to
start? Have you ever looked at a long list of risks and wondered how
you could make more sense of it? You probably won't have been helped by
the literature on risk assessment. In the first of a series of articles
we show you how to visualise your risks by turning them into what is
technically known as a causal model, Bayesian network or
‘risk map’. It’s best to think of risk
assessment as telling a story. And it’s a story that will
help you understand what your risks really are.
for the full paper.
Version 4.0 Released on 17th March 2006
has been designing and applying Bayesian Network and Simulation
solutions for the last four years. In that time we have helped field a
wide variety of applications to solve decision-support, simulation and
risk analysis problems for high-profile clients.
4.0 supports exact and approximate inference in hybrid and dynamic
networks using dynamic discretization as an alternative to Monte-Carlo
until now AgenaRisk has only been available to a select number of
clients in the defence, telecommunications and safety critical sectors.
But it is now available, along with a large number of tutorials and
example models, as an off-the-shelf software package. For more details
overview presentation of AgenaRisk is available here.
Management Decision-Support using Bayesian Networks
Technology has just completed an intensive program of work for the Abu
Dhabi Gas Liquefaction Company Ltd (ADGAS). One aspect of this work was
providing ADGAS with a decision-support tool to help prioritise vessel
to read the full showcase.
Fusion using Bayesian Networks
Information fusion involves
combining elements of classification, filtering, measures of
effectiveness and temporal dynamics into one model. This can look
daunting but is actually fairly straightforward to model in AgenaRisk.
Click here to read the full showcase.